tl;dr
The largest US banks—JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America—are expected to see an 11% increase in quarterly revenue from equities and fixed income trading, totaling about $26.4 billion, driven by portfolio adjustments related to President Trump’s tariff war. Analysts predict ...
The biggest banks in the US are poised for significant boosts in quarterly revenue from their trading divisions, driven by portfolio adjustments as a result of President Trump’s tariff war. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America are collectively expected to generate around $26.4 billion in revenue from equities and fixed income trading in their upcoming earnings reports, marking an 11% increase from the previous year.
Saul Martinez, a banking analyst at HSBC, predicts a strong quarter with potential upside beyond current estimates and guidance figures, especially highlighting the positive momentum on the equity side. However, he also notes concerns about the sustainability of such elevated sales and trading results over time.
Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley projects better-than-expected investment banking revenue in Q2, with management teams signaling growing pipelines. An anonymous senior Wall Street executive adds that market-making firms, which provide instantaneous liquidity, stand to benefit significantly amid the recent market derisking triggered by declines across stocks, bonds, and currency values.
Supporting this optimism, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported that US financial institutions achieved a return of 1.16% and net income of $70.6 billion in the first quarter. This reflects an increase of $3.8 billion, or 5.8%, compared to the previous quarter, underscoring the financial sector’s resilience amid market volatility.