tl;dr
An average of 566 BTC per day is moving into the long-term "ancient supply" category, surpassing the current daily issuance of 450 BTC, marking the first time this has happened in Bitcoin's history. As of June 8, 17% of all Bitcoin—over 3.4 million BTC—has not moved in a decade or more, strengthenin...
Bitcoin's long-term “ancient supply,” defined as coins unmoved for 10 or more years, is expanding at a faster rate than new daily issuance, reinforcing the cryptocurrency's scarcity narrative. As of June 8, 17% of Bitcoin's total supply—over 3.4 million BTC—falls into this ancient category, which includes a significant share attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, though some of these coins are likely lost. This growth marks a historic shift, with an average of 566 BTC per day entering ancient supply, outpacing the daily issuance of 450 BTC.
Despite the increasing ancient supply, Bitcoin's price performance in early 2025 has been modest, rising approximately 12% during what is traditionally seen as the peak of the bull market cycle. Post the 2024 US election, activity among long-term holders has increased, leading to more frequent declines in ancient supply and suggesting heightened profit-taking or repositioning. This uptick in movement from long-term holders might explain Bitcoin’s sideways and downward price trends in the first quarter of 2025.
The evolving dynamic between long-term and shorter-term holders is underscored by shifts in profit-taking behavior. Recently, holders with less than 12 months of ownership have become the predominant sellers, accounting for 83% of realized profits, while ultra-long-term holders (>12 months) have reduced their profit-taking activity. This transition reflects changing market sentiments and possibly increasing institutional involvement.
Institutional adoption and the emergence of new investment products targeting digital assets are expected to make long-term holding behavior more prevalent in the future. Analysts note that the accumulation of ancient supply is a unique attribute of Bitcoin, one that could significantly impact demand and valuation as scarcity intensifies. However, the growth of ancient supply does not guarantee immediate price increases and can contribute to short-term price volatility due to increased supply movements.
Overall, the expanding ancient supply highlights the strong conviction of Bitcoin’s long-term holders and their growing influence over market dynamics. As this segment expands, understanding its interplay with investor behavior and broader market trends will be crucial for anticipating Bitcoin’s future price action and scarcity-driven narratives.