tl;dr
The recent volatility in Bitcoin's price has seen the cryptocurrency struggle to maintain $100,000 as strong support. Short-term holders are crucial in this price action, and their potential offloading of assets could exacerbate selling pressure, leading to a possible correction. The RHODL Ratio ind...
The recent volatility in Bitcoin's price has seen the cryptocurrency struggle to maintain $100,000 as strong support. Short-term holders are crucial in this price action, and their potential offloading of assets could exacerbate selling pressure, leading to a possible correction. The RHODL Ratio indicates rising short-term speculation, hinting at a potential market top. Bitcoin's price consolidation suggests susceptibility to decline, with key support levels at $93,625 and $92,005. On the other hand, continued accumulation by long-term investors could propel Bitcoin towards $105,000.
Short-term holders (STH) have played a crucial role in Bitcoin’s recent price action. The supply held by these investors indicates that the market is mirroring the accumulation phase seen in May 2021. Back then, Bitcoin saw a significant influx of supply, leading to increased sensitivity among investors to any downward movement. If BTC fails to maintain support above $92,500, these holders may start offloading their assets, exacerbating the selling pressure. Should demand remain steady, Bitcoin could establish a new range above its all-time highs. However, a lack of sustained buy pressure could trigger a deeper correction.
The RHODL Ratio, which measures the balance between mid-cycle holders (6 months to 2 years) and new entrants (1 day to 3 months), has been declining. This trend suggests that short-term speculation is rising, a common indicator observed before market tops. While the ratio is not yet at extreme lows, its current movement aligns with patterns seen in the latter stages of previous bull cycles. A further drop in the RHODL Ratio could signal an impending correction.
Bitcoin price is currently consolidating between $98,212 and $95,761 and is at risk of a decline. Multiple tests of the lower support indicate that BTC remains susceptible to another retest. Should this level fail to hold, Bitcoin could face increased selling pressure, leading to a sharper decline. Given the ongoing macro trends and STH supply distribution, Bitcoin’s price may see a correction in the short term. A drop to $93,625 is plausible, and if bearish momentum intensifies, BTC could decline further to $92,005. These levels could act as critical support zones, influencing the next market movement.
On the other hand, continued accumulation by investors with a long-term outlook could provide Bitcoin with the necessary support to break through $98,212. If BTC successfully reclaims $100,000, bullish momentum could accelerate, propelling the cryptocurrency toward its all-time high of $105,000.
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