tl;dr
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, believes that President Trump’s executive order and the SEC’s recent pro-crypto stance will significantly impact Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Hougan expects pullbacks to be shorter and less intense due to these developments. He predicts Trump's order w...
President Trump's executive order and the SEC’s pro-crypto shifts are catalysts for Bitcoin's mainstream adoption, with trillions expected in the future - Matt Hougan
Bitcoin's current cycle started in March 2023, with the executive order seen as a catalyst for a more significant transformation - Matt Hougan
Bitcoin's four-year cycle, driven by halving events, may see a pullback in 2026, but Hougan remains optimistic about crypto's long-term trajectory
Hougan predicts a favorable 2025 for crypto, with Bitcoin's price potentially doubling and the impact of regulatory shifts unfolding over years - Matt Hougan
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO, believes that President Trump’s executive order and the SEC’s recent pro-crypto stance will significantly impact Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Hougan expects pullbacks to be shorter and less intense due to these developments. He predicts Trump's order will lead to mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, potentially bringing trillions into the market. Despite Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle, Hougan remains optimistic about crypto's long-term trajectory and forecasts a favorable 2025, with Bitcoin's price potentially doubling to over $200,000. However, he notes that the full impact of Trump's order and regulatory shifts will unfold over years, with the establishment of a new crypto regulatory framework taking at least a year. Hougan anticipates potential excesses and bad actors emerging, leading to a sharp but shorter and shallower pullback due to the market's maturity and a more diverse, value-driven investor base.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, said that President Donald Trump’s executive order could have a significant effect on Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle. While Hougan acknowledged that the market has not fully overcome the cycle, he expects any pullbacks to be shorter and less intense compared to previous years.
In his latest weekly memo, Hougan highlighted the President’s executive order and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) recent pro-crypto shifts as major catalysts for Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption. On January 23, President Trump signed an official order to establish a “national digital asset stockpile.” As a result, crypto inflows surged to $1.9 billion. “It created a pathway for the largest Wall Street banks and investors to move aggressively into the space,” Hougan wrote. According to Hougan, the current crypto cycle started in March 2023. This was when Grayscale secured a significant early victory in its legal battle with the SEC over a Bitcoin ETF. The ETFs launched in January 2024, with hundreds of billions of dollars entering the market from new investors. Nonetheless, Hougan sees the executive order as a catalyst for an even more significant transformation.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is a pattern driven by halving events. The price typically experiences a bearish accumulation phase, followed by a bull market due to reduced supply and then a bear market after the peak. This cycle repeats approximately every four years as the block reward for miners is halved. BTC experienced downturns in 2014, 2018, and 2022. If this pattern holds, the next pullback could occur in 2026. Despite this, Hougan remained optimistic about crypto’s long-term trajectory. “The crypto space has matured; there’s a greater variety of buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I’m not sure I’d bet against crypto in 2026,” Hougan acknowledged.
He also predicted 2025 to be a favorable year for crypto. “We’re on the record predicting that bitcoin’s price will double this year to above $200,000, driven by flows into ETFs and bitcoin purchases by corporations and governments,” stated the CIO. However, Hougan added that the forecast might be conservative. Lastly, he pointed out that the impact of Trump’s executive order and broader regulatory shifts will unfold over years rather than months. According to Hougan, establishing a new crypto regulatory framework will take at least a year. Moreover, Wall Street firms may require even more time to adapt. Meanwhile, the CIO stated that leverage will build, excesses will emerge, and bad actors will surface. This may potentially lead to a sharp pullback. Nonetheless, Hougan believes any correction is likely to be “shorter” and “shallower” due to the crypto market’s maturity and a more diverse, value-driven investor base.