tl;dr
VanEck predicts Bitcoin could capture half of gold's $26 trillion market cap, but experts debate the timeline and feasibility of this bold forecast amid growing institutional interest and market volatility.
**Bitcoin Eyes Half of Gold’s Market Cap, But Timing Remains a Question**
Bitcoin is positioning itself as a formidable competitor to gold, with investment firm VanEck predicting the cryptocurrency could capture half of gold’s $26 trillion market capitalization. This bold forecast, echoed by industry experts, draws parallels between Bitcoin and the traditional safe-haven asset, highlighting their shared characteristics as stores of value.
**VanEck’s Bullish Thesis**
Mathew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, emphasized the potential for Bitcoin to reach a value of $644,000 per coin if it secures half of gold’s market cap. Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at approximately $2.48 trillion, having surged over 12% in the past 30 days. The firm’s long-term vision hinges on factors like adoption in emerging markets, scalability improvements via Layer 2 solutions, and growing institutional interest.
VanEck’s research suggests that by 2050, Bitcoin could settle 10% of international trade and 5% of domestic trade, prompting central banks to allocate 2.5% of their assets to the cryptocurrency. The firm even projects a staggering $2.9 million per Bitcoin by 2050, based on a velocity of money equation, with the broader Layer 2 ecosystem potentially worth $7.6 trillion.
**Market Realities and Skepticism**
While VanEck’s outlook is ambitious, experts like Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, caution that the timeline remains uncertain. “Reaching half of gold’s market cap requires a 5.6x appreciation from here,” Lim noted, suggesting the target is more feasible over 5–10 years rather than within the current cycle. He highlighted Bitcoin’s shift toward stable, dollar-based gains—$50,000 to $60,000 per cycle—rather than explosive surges, as a sign of maturing growth.
The comparison to gold is not without its challenges. Gold has outperformed Bitcoin this year, rising 49% year-to-date compared to Bitcoin’s 31% gain. However, JPMorgan’s “debasement trade” narrative—linking gold and Bitcoin as hedges against fiat devaluation—lends credence to the idea that both assets could coexist as complementary stores of value.
**The Halving Cycle and Institutional Shifts**
The Bitcoin halving, a key event that reduces miner rewards every four years, has historically marked cyclical peaks. With 534 days elapsed since the last halving on April 20, 2024, some analysts worry about a repeat of past patterns. However, Lim argues this cycle differs due to the influx of institutional investors and spot ETFs, which have compressed volatility. “This isn’t the speculative frenzy of the past; it’s the maturation of an asset class,” he said, pointing to Bitcoin’s 86% gain on a higher base as evidence of sustainable growth.
Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital added that the current cycle may extend beyond historical norms, citing the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle and potential geopolitical risks like Trump-era tariffs as tailwinds for the “debasement trade.” He predicts a peak at least 180 days later than previous cycles.
**Long-Term Outlook: Parity or Beyond?**
Lim’s more measured projection envisions Bitcoin reaching 30–50% of gold’s market cap within a decade, with prices potentially hitting $300,000–$500,000 by 2035. VanEck’s $2.9 million target by 2050, while extreme, underscores the potential for Bitcoin to redefine global finance.
As the debate over Bitcoin’s role in the financial system intensifies, one thing is clear: the cryptocurrency is no longer a niche asset. Whether it can eclipse gold’s storied legacy will depend on adoption, innovation, and the evolving interplay between traditional and digital assets. For now, the race for half of gold’s market cap remains a tantalizing, if uncertain, goal.