tl;dr
Solana's ETF approval appears imminent as SEC regulatory shifts and analyst confidence surge, but experts warn of potential speculative volatility ahead.
**Solana ETF Approval Nears as SEC Process Shifts, Analysts Predict Speculative Surge**
A U.S. exchange-traded fund (ETF) centered on Solana (SOL) could be on the horizon, according to Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas, who recently shifted his stance on the likelihood of approval. In a Monday tweet, Balchunas stated that the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval odds for a Solana ETF have risen to “100%,” marking a dramatic turnaround from earlier expectations.
The shift comes after the SEC approved “generic listing standards” earlier this month, which has rendered the previous 19b-4 filing process—typically triggering a 240-day review period—largely irrelevant. Instead, ETF approvals now hinge on the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance reviewing S-1 registration statements. Balchunas noted that Solana’s ETF proponents have submitted amendment #4 to their S-1 filing, suggesting the regulatory hurdle could be cleared “any day.”
“This just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp Finance. And they just submitted amendment #4 for Solana. The baby could come any day. Be ready,” Balchunas wrote.
### A ‘Speculative’ Trade Ahead
While the regulatory path appears clear, analysts caution that a Solana ETF could trigger a wave of speculative trading. Jeffery Ding, chief analyst at HashKey Group, compared the potential launch to the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, where retail investors often buy ahead of approval only to sell after the product launches.
“[A Solana ETF] could trigger speculative buying ahead of approval, followed by a potential ‘sell the news’ correction once launched,” Ding said.
Historical data underscores this dynamic. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $12.13 billion in cumulative inflows within their first ten weeks, while Ethereum ETFs initially faced $522.97 million in outflows before rebounding with $3.56 billion in inflows over the following three months. However, Ding noted that Solana’s ETF may not immediately outperform Ethereum’s.
“In the short run, that’s unlikely,” Ding said. He highlighted that institutional investors already have a clearer understanding of Ethereum’s role in the financial ecosystem, which includes critical infrastructure like stablecoin issuance and real-world asset integration. Solana, while popular, lacks the same level of institutional familiarity and regulatory precedent.
### Market Reaction and Outlook
As of the latest data, Solana’s price stood at $211.17, reflecting a modest gain for the day. The potential ETF approval could inject fresh momentum into the cryptocurrency market, but analysts emphasize the risks of overexuberance.
The SEC’s decision on Solana’s ETF will likely hinge on whether the agency views the asset as compliant with its regulatory framework. With the 19b-4 process no longer a factor, the focus remains on the S-1 filing, which could determine the timeline for a launch.
For now, investors and traders are watching closely, aware that the road to a Solana ETF—while seemingly clear—could still face unforeseen hurdles. As Balchunas put it, “The baby could come any day.” Whether the market is ready remains to be seen.