tl;dr
Gold reaches record highs as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts increase, driven by weak U.S. job data and continued gold purchases by China's central bank. Analysts predict further price increases, with gold potentially reaching $3,700 to $3,730. Bitcoin remains below $115,000, with instit...
Gold Surges to Record Highs as Fed Rate Cuts Loom, Bitcoin Stalls
Gold is hitting record highs, with prices surging past $3,649 per ounce on Monday as fresh U.S. job data stoked speculation that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates sooner than expected. The metal’s momentum shows no signs of slowing, with spot gold climbing 1.3% to $3,631.66 and December futures rising 0.5% to $3,670.80. Analysts like Peter Grant, Zaner Metals’ vice president and senior metals strategist, are betting on even higher prices. “Continued labor market softness and expectations of ongoing Fed rate cuts into early 2026 could provide sustained support for bullion,” he said, predicting gold could test the $3,700 to $3,730 range.
China’s relentless gold buying is fueling the rally. The country’s central bank made its 10th consecutive monthly gold purchase in August, adding to the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains stuck below $115,000, unable to break out despite the broader market frenzy. Institutions, however, are hedging their bets: the 25 Delta Skew (1 Month) for Bitcoin is rising, signaling increased demand for put options—a move typically used to protect against downside risk as crypto ETFs and DATs expand.
Gold’s dominance isn’t just a short-term phenomenon. This year alone, the metal has surged 38%, with another 27% gain in 2024, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, central bank buying, and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs is now backing the trend, listing gold mining stocks as top picks for the final quarter of 2025. Analysts led by David Kostin expect gold to rise 14% more by 2026, with mining equities likely to follow. The bank’s research highlights standout performers: Dakota Gold, Anglogold Ashanti, and Newmont have all doubled in price this year, while SSR Mining has tripled and Perpetua Resources is up 75%.
Goldman also flagged two other opportunities. Alternative asset managers, still lagging behind their post-election highs under a potential Trump administration, could rebound as capital markets improve. Meanwhile, firms holding floating-rate debt might benefit as the Fed eases rates.
The S&P 500’s outlook is tied to the Fed’s moves, too. Goldman predicts a 2% rise by year-end and another 6% by mid-2026 if rate cuts materialize.
As gold soars and Bitcoin stalls, investors are left wondering: is this a temporary shift, or the start of a long-term realignment between traditional and digital assets? What role will central banks and ETFs play in shaping the next chapter of this story?