tl;dr
Bitcoin’s rollercoaster ride this week has left investors both exhilarated and cautious. After surging from $111,000 on August 21 to over $117,000 on August 23, the cryptocurrency faced a sudden pullback, settling near $111.36K as of press time. This “Jackson Hole bounce”—a term often used to descri...
Bitcoin’s rollercoaster ride this week has left investors both exhilarated and cautious. After surging from $111,000 on August 21 to over $117,000 on August 23, the cryptocurrency faced a sudden pullback, settling near $111.36K as of press time. This “Jackson Hole bounce”—a term often used to describe market rebounds after major central bank events—has sparked debates about whether Bitcoin is nearing a pivotal turning point or simply riding a temporary wave.
But beneath the surface, a more intriguing story is unfolding: **Bitcoin’s supply is tightening**, and investors are holding on tighter than ever. According to CryptoQuant, a 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange inflows has plummeted to its lowest level since May 2023. That’s a red flag for sellers—and a green light for bulls. Historically, lower inflows mean fewer coins are being liquidated, signaling a shift from selling to holding.
Take Coinbase, for example. Despite Bitcoin’s modest price recovery, inflows have dropped sharply, suggesting U.S. and institutional investors are sitting on their hands. Binance, the global trading giant, is seeing the same pattern. If major exchanges are collectively reducing their inflows, it’s a sign that the market is entering a **supply-constrained environment**—a recipe for price strength.
This isn’t just a technicality; it’s a behavioral shift. Institutional investors, once quick to sell during dips, are now holding firm. Why? The math is simple: **less supply means higher demand**, and with fewer coins hitting the market, Bitcoin’s price has fewer hurdles to climb. Analysts are watching closely, as this could be the setup for a **“grand finale”** in Bitcoin’s current bull run.
Enter **Cryptobirb**, a crypto analyst who’s drawing a bold timeline for the future. Based on historical bull run durations, halving cycles, and seasonal trends, they estimate Bitcoin’s cycle is now **93% complete**, with a potential peak expected between **late October and mid-November 2025**. That window—between October 19 and November 20—aligns with previous bull cycles that peaked 366 to 548 days after the April 2024 halving.
But here’s the catch: past bull runs have been followed by brutal bear markets. Cryptobirb warns that a post-peak correction could slash Bitcoin’s value by **66% or more**, echoing the harsh crashes that followed earlier cycles. For now, though, the signs are bullish. Bitcoin trades above key moving averages, and on-chain data shows no signs of miner panic.
So, where does this leave us? If the “grand finale” plays out as predicted, Q4 2025 could be a make-or-break moment for Bitcoin. But whether it’s a crescendo or a crash depends on one thing: **how long investors can hold their breath**.
What do you think? Is Bitcoin’s next move a final sprint toward $124,000—or the start of a long, grueling descent?