tl;dr
The current crypto bull market is shifting due to increased institutional participation, mainly from US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, leading to longer, steadier growth instead of rapid gains. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator shows a new pattern, reflecting this maturation. Institutional i...
According to a new analysis, the current crypto bull market is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Institutional participation, primarily driven by US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, is ushering in a phase of longer and more sustained growth, moving away from the rapid and explosive gains typical of earlier cycles.
On-chain data analyst Yonsei_dent from CryptoQuant highlights the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator as a key metric that signals this maturation. The NUPL measures the overall profitability of the market, with high levels indicating many investors hold significant unrealized profits, which often leads to profit-taking and market tops. Historically, peaks in this metric have closely matched previous cycle tops—in 2017 and 2021. The current cycle, however, shows an attempt at a third peak, signaling a new pattern in market dynamics.
This shift marks the impact of institutional capital inflows, which bring a more consistent and less speculative demand compared to the retail-driven surges of the past. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has added stability and liquidity, fundamentally changing market behavior. While this has created a larger and less volatile market, it has also tempered expectations around gains—successive rallies now show smaller percentage increases.
In conclusion, the era of sharp, frenzied rallies yielding 100x returns in brief periods appears to be fading. Instead, investors are entering a new bull market paradigm characterized by steadier growth built on solid foundations. This calls for adjusting expectations and strategies to align with a market driven by institutional steadiness rather than retail exuberance.