tl;dr
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju declared the "Bitcoin cycle theory" dead and apologized for inaccurately predicting the end of the recent Bitcoin bull market. In April, Ju claimed Bitcoin was in a bear market despite institutional buying, but Bitcoin surged from $80,000 to an all-time high of $123,2...
CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, a notable cryptocurrency analyst, has declared the "Bitcoin cycle theory" to be officially dead. Ju apologized for his earlier prediction that the bull cycle was over, a forecast that proved profoundly inaccurate. In his apology, he emphasized a commitment to more careful, data-driven analysis moving forward.
In early April, Ju argued that the Bitcoin bull market had ended, noting that large purchases from institutional investors were ineffective in raising prices due to overwhelming selling pressure. He suggested that Bitcoin was entrenched in a bear market, unlikely to rally soon. At the time, Bitcoin traded near the $80,000 mark amid concerns over U.S. tariffs influencing the market. Contrary to this bearish outlook, Bitcoin surged to $112,000 in May and later reached an all-time high of $123,236 in July, marking a potential 54% gain for those who did not act on Ju’s warning.
Reflecting on his misjudgment, Ju expressed that trading seems futile now, citing a shift in market dynamics where holders surpass traders. He pointed out that unlike previous cycles where whales offloaded assets to retail investors, the current cycle involves old whales selling to new long-term whales, including institutional treasury companies. This shift in behavior signals the end of typical bull cycles, fundamentally changing how Bitcoin markets operate. Ju acknowledged that overlooking this transition was a critical error in his previous analysis.
Despite Ju's conclusion, not all analysts agree on the demise of Bitcoin’s historical cycles. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer recently reaffirmed that Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to its traditional four-year market cycle, illustrating that interpretations of Bitcoin’s price behavior still vary within the expert community.