tl;dr
Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley, views the US stock market as underwhelming with limited upside for the rest of the year. He expects the S&P 500 to remain around 5,900 to 6,000, describing this period as a "pause year" after two strong years. Slimmon anticipates a market d...
Morgan Stanley's senior portfolio manager, Andrew Slimmon, forecasts a limited upside for the US stock market in 2024, describing it as a "pause year" following two strong years. He predicts the S&P 500 will hover between 5,900 and 6,000, indicating little significant movement throughout the year.
Slimmon anticipates a market drawdown later in the summer but believes earnings results might outperform current negative analyst projections, drawing parallels to the unexpected earnings strength seen during the COVID-19 period. He expects analysts to revise earnings estimates upwards, potentially sparking a rally toward the end of the year.
Currently, the S&P 500 trades near 5,975, close to all-time highs, but Slimmon cautions against expecting the index to substantially exceed the 6,000 mark anytime soon. He emphasizes that markets don't tend to move in a slow, steady manner but instead deviate around a central norm, implying volatility despite the general sideways trend.
In summary, the outlook for 2024 suggests a cautious stance with potential short-term pullbacks, steady earnings surprises, and a possible rally late in the year once earnings forecasts improve. Investors should prepare for a year of limited gains and heightened market scrutiny.