tl;dr
Bitcoin is currently in a bull market, but some demand-related metrics suggest a possible short-term price correction before further gains. Whale-held BTC balances have increased significantly, with demand growth nearing levels seen before a past major surge. The Bitcoin Traders’ Unrealized Profit M...
Bitcoin remains well within a bull market but shows signs of approaching a short-term top, signaling a possible price correction before resuming its rally.
Key demand metrics indicate potential resistance ahead. Whale holdings of BTC have surged by 2.8% in the past month, with total demand growth nearing 229,000 BTC—levels close to those seen before the December 2024 surge past $100,000. Historically, such rapid accumulation by whales often precedes a slowdown.
The Bitcoin Traders’ Unrealized Profit Margin—a metric tracking potential resistance—has neared 40%, a threshold where BTC’s price generally slows. When BTC last climbed above $111,000, this margin hit 32%, signaling possible overheating. The 30-day moving average for this margin currently stands at 19%, reinforcing this observation.
Following this rally, Bitcoin’s price dipped below $104,000 amid moderate profit-taking, down about 2% within 24 hours from $105,000 levels. Despite this, the overall market remains bullish, and there is no evidence the bull cycle is ending. Analysts highlight $120,000 as a key resistance level, coinciding with the upper band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, historically a strong ceiling during bull markets.
Investor behavior shows moderate profit realization compared to prior cycles, supporting continued strength in Bitcoin’s trajectory. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index currently stands at 80, well above the 50 threshold historically associated with sustained rallies.
In summary, while Bitcoin's current demand metrics and whale activity point to short-term resistance and a likely price correction, the broader market conditions underpin a continuing bullish trend and potential for further gains after correction phases.