tl;dr
Bitcoin's price is predicted to more than double to $250,000 within six months by Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin billionaire and BitMEX co-founder. Hayes cites a shift in U.S. fiscal policy away from tariffs toward increased money printing and fiscal stimulus ahead of the 2026 elections. Potential changes in...
Bitcoin billionaire and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin's price will more than double to $250,000 within six months. This forecast is based on anticipated shifts in U.S. fiscal policy under the Trump administration, moving away from tariffs toward increased money printing and fiscal stimulus ahead of the 2026 elections.
Hayes points to several potential policy changes that could drive this surge, including allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to go public again, easing bank leverage ratios related to U.S. Treasury holdings, and imposing capital controls on foreign government investments. These measures could stimulate economic growth and support risk assets like Bitcoin.
Adding to the bullish outlook, Hayes forecasts Bitcoin reaching $1 million before 2028 and Ethereum climbing to $5,000, spurred by regulatory developments and greater institutional adoption. Similar optimistic predictions have been voiced by other investors such as Tim Draper.
Hayes emphasizes that as the Trump administration distances itself from tariffs, it will seek to "bring goodies for the population" via accelerated money printing by the Federal Reserve. Specifically, easing leverage ratios for banks to buy U.S. Treasury bonds could inject liquidity into the market and make mortgages more affordable.
Capital controls targeting foreign government holdings of U.S. assets might replace tariffs to support American manufacturing in a more politically viable manner. This shift could push global governments toward gold and Bitcoin as alternative stores of value.
Additionally, Hayes highlights the growing trend of firms adopting Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. With Congress considering legislation to regulate stablecoins and establish clearer taxonomies for cryptocurrencies, Ethereum is also expected to rebound significantly, with prices potentially hitting $5,000 this year.
Overall, the confluence of fiscal stimulus, regulatory clarity, and institutional acceptance sets a powerful stage for major price appreciation in the crypto markets over the coming years.