tl;dr
Google's quantum research team has found that breaking 2048-bit RSA encryption may require 20 times fewer quantum resources than previously estimated, potentially factoring it in less than a week with under a million noisy qubits. This breakthrough is due to improved algorithms and enhanced error co...
Google's latest research reveals that quantum computers may break 2048-bit RSA encryption with 20 times fewer qubits than previously estimated, potentially accomplishing this feat in under a week using less than a million noisy qubits. This breakthrough arises from advanced algorithms and improved error correction techniques, which enhance quantum efficiency significantly.
Currently, quantum machines like IBM's Condor (1,121 qubits) and Google's Sycamore (53 qubits) fall far short of this capability, ensuring that encryption securing assets such as Bitcoin wallets remains safe for now. However, the accelerated progress in quantum computing highlights a growing threat to encryption methods broadly, including Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography, which relies on similar mathematical principles as RSA.
Experts and organizations are proactively exploring quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions as the timeline for quantum computers to break encryption systems may need acceleration. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already recommended phasing out vulnerable encryption standards by 2030, but Google’s findings suggest this deadline might be moved forward.
Bitcoin holders should be aware that its 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography, while stronger than RSA keys studied, is not immune to quantum attacks, especially as research groups like Project 11 test quantum techniques aimed at undermining bitcoin’s security. The crypto community and major tech companies are working on defenses, including hash-based signatures and potential blockchain hard forks, to safeguard against future quantum threats.
Despite the threat’s immediacy being low due to current quantum hardware limitations—such as short coherence times and the need for sustained, low-error quantum operations over days—the pace of breakthroughs signals an urgent need for action in both cryptocurrency and global digital security arenas.
In summary, while today's quantum computers cannot yet compromise critical encryptions, Google's findings accelerate the urgency for quantum-safe cryptography, urging innovation and adaptation in blockchain technologies and beyond to prepare for a quantum-enabled future.