EddieJayonCrypto

 19 Apr 25

tl;dr

New data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) may be approaching an early bear market. Short-term holders are experiencing unrealized losses similar to conditions seen before previous bear markets. While long-term holders remain profitable, their profits may decline, potentially confirming a ...

New data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) may be approaching an early bear market. Short-term holders are experiencing unrealized losses similar to conditions seen before previous bear markets.

While long-term holders remain profitable, their profits may decline, potentially confirming a bear market in the future. Metrics tracking value flow and volatility-adjusted net realized profit/loss suggest Bitcoin is at a critical point between bull and bear market regimes.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $84,557 with a slight decrease in the past 24 hours.

Glassnode's analysis shows that short-term Bitcoin holders—those holding for less than 155 days—are already enduring substantial unrealized losses relative to the current price correction. This situation mirrors early bear market phases observed in earlier Bitcoin cycles.

On the other hand, long-term holders (holding for 155 days or more) remain broadly profitable. However, as aging top buyers transition into this group, the increased loss absorption may herald the onset of a bear market, though no definitive bearish regime has emerged yet.

One key metric measuring the directional flow of value indicates that Bitcoin is at a crucial market crossroads. Additionally, the volatility-adjusted net realized profit/loss for Bitcoin has reverted to its long-term median, historically marking the boundary between bull and bear markets.

This combination of factors positions Bitcoin at a pivotal moment for determining its near-term market direction.

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