tl;dr
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts that altcoins are likely to experience a downturn in the third quarter of 2025, with a potential recovery around November. He suggests that altcoin movements are closely linked to Bitcoin's price action and that the health of the altcoin market depends on Bitco...
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts that altcoins are likely to experience a downturn in the third quarter of 2025, with a potential recovery around November. He suggests that altcoin movements are closely linked to Bitcoin's price action and that the health of the altcoin market depends on Bitcoin and possibly the yields in 10-year Treasuries.
Cowen's chart indicates that when the TOTAL3/BTC index falls below 0.27, the altcoin market tends to collapse. He emphasizes that the fate of the altcoin market in March is tied to Bitcoin's performance and the potential movement in the long end of the yield curve. He also notes that Bitcoin is currently trading at $96,637, representing a 1.3% gain during the last day.
Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says that altcoins are likely to collapse in the third quarter of 2025. In a new strategy session, Cowen tells his 874,000 YouTube subscribers that judging by previous cycles, altcoins likely have another leg to move down sometime during Q3 of movement as their movements are largely coupled with the price action of Bitcoin (BTC). He says that around November is when altcoins can mount their recovery.
“I think at some point this year, probably going to break down… And maybe do that this summer and then we’ll see them sort of bounce back up later on this year, something like where they come down here and then maybe go up. Remember, big move by alt/Bitcoin pairs in 2017 didn’t actually occur until November so you have to remember that.”
Cowen’s chart, which examines TOTAL3 – an index that tracks the total value of all digital assets excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins – appears to suggest that it will fall below the 0.27 line when paired against BTC. TOTAL3/BTC is currently sitting at 0.47. In previous cycles when TOTAL3/BTC touched the 0.27 area, the altcoin market collapsed.
Cowen goes on to say that the health of the altcoin market is largely dependent on BTC, and potentially the yields in 10-year Treasuries which often reflect investors’ general risk appetite. “If Bitcoin breaks up to a new cycle high, then I think Bitcoin would lead that move, so the altcoin markets’ fate in March is just dependent on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes up, they’ll go up too… If Bitcoin breaks down, I think it would probably correspond to maybe a surge in the long end of the yield curve, and that is something we’ve been tracking. If you actually look at the 10-year yield, one of the things that actually caused Bitcoin to sort of consolidate and then eventually break down was a surge of the 10-year yield.”
Bitcoin is trading for $96,637 at time of writing, a 1.3% gain during the last day.