tl;dr
Mark Yusko, co-founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, predicts that Bitcoin will reach a six-figure price over the coming months, and could triple in price from current fair value or double in price from post-halving fair value. He estimates Bitcoin’s fair value based on the number of users and mi...
Mark Yusko, co-founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, predicts that Bitcoin will reach a six-figure price over the coming months, and could triple in price from current fair value or double in price from post-halving fair value. He estimates Bitcoin’s fair value based on the number of users and miners or its network effects.
Yusko suggests that Bitcoin could reach the peak for the bull cycle around nine months after the halving, which will occur around April 20th and April 21st. In a new CNBC interview, Yusko highlights the potential for Bitcoin to double or triple from its current fair value or post-halving fair value.:
"So we look at the fair value today from the Metcalfe’s Law model… that gives us around $50,000. The halving occurs in three weeks. What a halving does is it cuts the block rewards, the amount of money that’s given to the miners to secure the network. If those rewards were to get cut in half, as they do, many of the miners would struggle. So historically what has happened? The price rises, the fair value rises. So that would push it to $100,000. But this time it’s a little different in that instead of just block rewards, we get transaction fees because of ordinals and inscriptions. So let’s say the fair value only goes to $75,000 this time. Then post-halving you get a lot of interest in the asset, a lot of people FOMO (fear of missing out) in and we normally go to about two times fair value in the cycle. So in the last cycle fair value was $30,000, we got to as high as $69,000. This time, I think probably two times because there’s less leverage. So that gets us to $150,000."
Yusko also believes that the peak for the bull cycle will occur around nine months after the halving. He explains, "The big move happens post-halving. So the halving occurs sometime between April 20th and April 21st most likely. So once that occurs then you start to get an increase in demand right from the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other people interested. But the supply of new coins goes from 900 a day to 450. Well, think about it… if there’s more demand than supply, price has to rise. So the price starts to rise. It starts to become more exponential or parabolic toward the end of the year, and historically, about nine months after the halving. So sometime toward Thanksgiving, Christmas we see the peak in price before the next bear market."
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